Thursday, March 14, 2024

Apple's Disappointing Design Choices — Why I Struggle to Update my Devices

Who knows what it was that brought Apple to current Macbook Pro design. Perhaps it was the years of technical headaches like the butterfly keyboards, perhaps it was a growing awareness of a significant body of professional users who were holding onto their old pre-2015 systems instead of opting for USB-C charging Touchbar foolishness. Whatever it was, when Apple brought back Magsafe charging and a healthy number of ports to the Macbook Pro in 2022, I finally let go of my of my old system and upgraded my laptop. It didn't hurt that the battery had swollen on my Macbook Pro, distorting the enclosure and leaving me worried that the system might spontaneously combust.

My Macbook Pro isn't the only Apple device I need to replace or upgrade, but sadly, it seems like it's one of the few Apple designs that are aligned with my needs. 

My current iPhone is an original iPhone SE. Often, when people see it these days, they're like, "what is that?" At one point, I had tried an upgrade to the iPhone Xs, but the lack of a home button made the device extremely frustrating to use. Back then, my wife pointed me to a way to use the accessibility features to create a soft home button, which helped, but didn't save it. I ended up switching the SIM card out and going back to my old iPhone SE, using the iPhone Xs as a camera (it was a good camera). I even upgraded my original 64GB iPhone SE to a 128GB model I was able to find online. 

I kept hoping that the iPhone SE2 would keep the body style and features of the original iPhone SE, but when it was announced — and it was basically an iPhone 8 — I knew I wouldn't be getting a new SE. Sure, it still had a home button, but they got rid of the headphone jack and the lens protruded from the back. My iPhone SE is probably the last Apple iPhone that doesn't really need a case to protect the device.

Since that time, I've upgraded my iPhone Xs (a camera) to an iPhone 13 Pro that is still, just a camera. I don't use it for calls. I don't use it for listening to music, even though I have Airpods. If Apple sold something like it that was a smaller and lighter top-tier camera (like the old iPod Touch), I'd probably consider one of those instead. The iPhone Mini models, that have since been cancelled, were tempting for their smaller, more appropriate size, but the lower grade camera and the lack of a headphone jack kept me from switching to that device as my all-in-one phone. 

The iPhone 13 Pro is also full of features that I don't use — the wireless charging is just about useless for me, and the absence of a fingerprint sensor is inconvenient whenever you need to wear a mask or when you're outside wearing sunglasses. Did I mention that I hate the volume/power button configuration?

With the way the various model designs have been going, I don't expect the iPhone to ever return to the type of design that I would use. That branch of development seems to have closed and we're stuck with oversized devices without industry-standard headphone jacks going forward. I've resigned myself to knowing that my best hope is to replace my battery again, sometime in the future.

The Disappointing Design Direction for the iPad Line

My iPad is an old 10.5" iPad Pro. When I purchased it, I liked to use it to view (and sometimes color-correct) images. These days, I mostly use it to stream various video services. It's been about six or seven years since I got this iPad, and the battery is failing. I've had it on flights and been unable to stream more than about 2 hours of content before the battery dies. I'd probably replace the battery, but when we've tried to do that, we've wound up with iPads that don't work right any longer. Even though the battery issue was becoming a problem last year, every time I look at upgrades, I give up.

Sadly, the iPad upgrade path is the barrier that keeps me from upgrading. In one respect, I'd like to switch to a new iPad Pro with a modern M-series chip — that's what we upgraded my wife to when the first M1 iPads came out. While the Face ID has had a few authentication issues, it's not as big of an issue with the iPad as it is with a device you carry around outside in the world. At the same time, the lack of the home button means I'd be stuck with the little white dot, the soft home button that I use on my iPhone 13 Pro — kind of a pain when your watching streaming content. But the worst is probably the lack of a headphone jack. As of today's post, the only iPad in the current line-up that still has a headphone jack is the 9th generation basic iPad. 

I know what the corporate line is on this — you can use Airpods or with the older Lightning-based devices, you could use their Apple Lightning connector earbuds. Now it's, "you can use an adapter dongle." But the simple question is, why can't I just use regular headphones, the same ones that I can use to connect to my Macbook Pro. When I'm on the plane, I want to use headphones. I have nice headphones that I use when I'm on the plane. I can use them to connect to in-flight audio on international flights, but I can't connect them to the newest iPad?

With the phones, I've heard some people try to sell the idea that the standard audio jack would make the iPhone less water resistant. Okay, but the iPad isn't used in the same environments and it doesn't need to meet that standard. The iPad Pro was pitched as sort of a laptop replacement — when the laptop has an 3.5mm audio port. It's probably just a matter of another rev or two for them to try and remove the audio port from the Macbook Pro, but seriously, WTF Apple?

I know. It's a pretty simple usage model, and I'm sure that I'm not the only one that operates this way, but suddenly, the theme running through Apple designs is that I'm the idiot, that my usage patterns and my expectations for the technology are wrong. Frankly, if the things that I designed were that misaligned with my audience, I'd be out of work.

Perhaps the funniest aspect of this was when Apple announced their Hi-Resolution Lossless Audio, but it wouldn't work on any of their existing audio components. It didn't work on Airpods, Airpod Pros, or even their Airpod Max headphones — even if you were using a wired connector with the Airpod Max headphones. It's kind of like being saddled with another version of the Touchbar.

So here I sit, with a dying iPad. It seems like my best choice for a replacement is the base model from the previous generation, where I'll get one or two improvements like a faster processor and a battery that can hold a charge, but I'll lose some better speakers and some screen quality. And by making that choice, I'd be choosing a system that may not run next year's OS, or if not next year, a year or two after that. Thanks Apple. 

These are the kinds of things that make you wish for the old version of Apple, the one that actually solved design problems rather than working through iterations of designs that progress toward getting rid of that terrible "notch" or trying to find ways to make people use Siri.

Saturday, December 30, 2023

Waving Goodbye to Poor Services in 2023

As 2023 wraps up, it seems like it might be a fitting time to look at some of the vendors and services that have changed their service in the past year or so and, correspondingly have lost me as a customer. I'm sure that I'm not alone.

HBO / HBO Max / Max — After something like about 10 years of subscribing to the streaming version of HBO, this year's Max updates finally crossed the threshold into sucking so badly that I cancelled my subscription. The original HBO app had it's issues, but it had some of the best movie and TV series content. When you tried to "View All" on the movie list, it would load about a 30 titles, then hang for a minute or more while it loaded the next 30. Sometimes you couldn't get through the entire list without the app hanging. Still, you could count on most of the top box office hits to become available on the service at one time or another. HBO Max was an optimistic improvement, with seemingly better software and some added content like the Looney Tunes cartoon library. While the HBO Max content typically lacked the gravitas of more classic HBO content, it wasn't the garbage dump that it became when it changed to Max. With Max, they backed up the truck and dumped the worst reality TV garbage onto the platform. Add to that a problem that grew out of the pandemic—an erosion of noteworthy box office content—followed by the writers and actors strikes, and the weeks or months of waiting for meaningful new content seemed endless. When I received the notice that they were going to start charging more for the service, it was the last straw. 

Public Storage — After eight years or so and using one Public Storage facility to store stuff like holiday decorations and other things that we don't use regularly and don't really have room for at home, Public Storage increased the rent on the space to about double what it was when I first rented the locker. Add to that a break-in at several lockers a few spaces down, and it became clear that the value of their service was becoming a big question mark. After reviewing several options, we were able to find a larger space for more than half the cost of the rent at the old space. This is what happens when pricing algorithms don't understand loyalty.

On their way to the chopping block

Amazon Prime — Recently, I've seen a number of people complaining about the increasing cost of Amazon's Prime subscription service. As online ordering has grown and the number of competitive options have increased, the perceived value of free two day shipping has dropped, and paying $139 per year seems excessive to some. For me, the critical break came when Amazon sent a notice that they'd be incorporating ads into all of their Prime Video streaming content unless you paid an additional $2.99 per month. Frankly, if Prime Video had been a stand-alone service, I probably would have cancelled it years ago. While some of the Prime Video series have been good, the service has always felt like an incomplete offering. Additionally, I've always hated how they mixed content that you needed to pay for with content that was available for free as a Prime member — sort of an annoying bait-and-switch. That tactic is one reason why I have not purchased or rented any content from them. 

It's not the only stupid thing that they do. We used to shop more frequently at Whole Foods. While different Whole Foods markets varied, some of the larger ones in the area (Cupertino, Mountain View) had great meat counters, great cheese counters, and a solid produce section. When Amazon took over, the stores evolved into a sort of shell of it's previous form. The meat counters in the large stores were cut down. Practically speaking, the meat counter at the Cupertino Whole Foods is half the size that it used to be, with the other half used to display packaged meats or cooked food. Similarly, while Whole Foods used to be a destination store for produce, now their choices often seem limited and they frequently run out of stuff. But the worst is their stupid transactional system. First, they added the Amazon Prime credit card and offered a discount to Prime members using the card. Then, they started offering some deeper discount specials to Prime members, but only if you used their Prime phone app and scanned a bar code generated by the app. Why couldn't they simply determine that you were a Prime member by the Prime credit card that you were paying with? Even if you showed the cashier, it didn't matter. Only the tracker app mattered for the discount. I'd like to say that that specifically was the reason why we went from frequently shopping at Whole Foods to seldom shopping there, but it wouldn't be true. The real reason is that they simply quit carrying many of the products that we purchase. Or the products that we purchased there became so bad — we once got a skirt steak from there that was so stringy and tough, it was basically inedible. At this point, we'd be unlikely to buy beef from there, even with some steep Prime day discounts added in.

Nob Hill Grocery Store — We've been shopping at Nob Hill for years, in part due to it's proximity to us. Recently, like Whole Foods and Safeway, they added this extra discount if you link your transaction with a phone app. Unfortunately, our first experience with this resulted in three packs of cheese purchased at 3x this price shown back where the product was, despite having an account that links our transactions to a phone number and an account (and that information provided at the transaction). In short, they followed the recipe to make upset and dissatisfied "loyal" customers.

Really Bad Account-Based Marketing Initiatives — 2023 was the year when some businesses decided that they needed to see aggressive growth or aggressive change, or something. Perhaps one of the funniest stories of the year for me revolved around a change in our Salesforce.com Account Team. Back around the time that Dreamforce was scheduled, I was forwarded an email from a VP at Salesforce. The email, inviting them to engage with the VP at Dreamforce, was addressed to two people from the leadership team, a biz-dev guy, two guys who oversee sales for two different product groups, and a guy who had left the company 10 years prior. Of the people on that list, only one was probably an appropriate audience (not the guy who had left the company). When I reached out to clarify their communication issue, they kept insisting on a "State of our Salesforce" call. When I explained that it wasn't a good time — and wouldn't be for perhaps a couple of months — they continued to suggest the call. Then, a couple of months later when we had an issue and I reached out to our rep, his response was basically, "that's a bummer, can we have that State of our Salesforce call now?"

I could probably go on, but it seems like a good spot to call it a wrap.

Friday, June 17, 2022

San Jose Moves to Stuff Four 11-12 Story Mixed Use Towers Into El Paseo De Saratoga

Perhaps one of the greatest takeaways from the past two years was an experiential one created in early parts of the pandemic. For a period of time, when everything was locked down and only a few ventured out periodically for essential trips, you could drive down most roads and only see a small handful of cars. What might have once been a 45 minute drive, composed mostly of stop and go traffic, became a 10-15 minute drive. Sure, you might have to wait in line for 30 minutes before they let you in to resupply and hope they had some of the essentials that you were looking for, but finally, the madness that makes up the roadways around the Bay Area had quieted. Now, as the traffic continues to build back to it's pre-pandemic levels, it's a reminder of one of negatives to the quality of life in the Bay Area.

A year before the pandemic, I wrote about how high density housing was destroying Silicon Valley. With the pandemic, remote work, and the stories about people moving away from the Bay Area, you might imagine that the over-subscription of space in our neighborhood might have eased, but it's simply not the case. Instead, the governments and the regional developers seem hell bent on building gridlock on a massive scale. 

A top view of the planned development at El Paseo De Saratoga

Take, for example, this development that was moved forward by San Jose at the El Paseo De Saratoga location in west San Jose. If you've been a resident of the south bay for any length of time, you probably know it as the shopping center with the REI, or where the REI moved to when it left Cupertino. El Paseo De Saratoga was once a pretty standard regional strip mall. They had some restaurants, some stores, a grocery store, a bank or two, and a movie theater. Sadly, many of the businesses at El Paseo suffered under larger market trends. There was a Staples, a Mimi's Cafe, a Le Boulanger, a Lucky's grocery store. You might wonder if El Paseo had issues, but across the street at Westgate Mall, there was a Walmart grocery that was closed as well.

With the closing of the Lucky grocery store (and this broader statewide move to add huge amounts of high density housing), they decided to do a redesign and transform El Paseo into a high density mixed use development. 

As someone who lives in this area, when you first learn about a plan to add housing to strip mall, you assume that it's going to be something like the little project over on San Tomas Aquino — maybe 20 to 30 houses on a chunk of land that used to be a tire store and a couple of auto shops. What you don't expect is that the city of San Jose will approve somebody to develop 11 and 12 story towers on the properties that once housed a single story strip mall.

A rendering of what the proposed 11-story buildings will look like

What's better than a strip mall with a Lucky grocery store? How about if we make it a Whole Foods grocery store, but we add 6 floors of housing on top? And while we're at it, let's cut the amount of available parking to 1/3 of what was there. Not only will the Whole Foods seem busy with all of the people right on top of it, but the people driving around looking for parking will make it seem like it's in even greater demand.

Brilliant.

So here's the thing about this high-density development racket. They claim that they're building these at key points on the various transportation corridors. That way, when they add 1000 new residential locations, they can say "see, it's right next to a Caltrain station, so many of those people will be able to simply take Caltrain to the places that they need to go," as though the majority of the new residents won't own a car or ever find a need to drive. 

They can't even make that claim for El Paseo. El Paseo de Saratoga is 3 miles away from the nearest light rail station. It's 8 miles to the nearest Caltrain station. Tucked away in this western corner of San Jose, it's nowhere near the Bart expansion. There also aren't a whole lot of bus stops, nor bus lines that run through the intersections around Saratoga Ave, Prospect and Quito/Lawrence Expressway. In terms of driving, El Paseo is 1.5 miles away from Highway 85 and 2.5 miles from 280. It's not near mass transit, nor does it represent housing next to easy transportation access. What's worse, there are no plans to expand mass transportation in the area or to expand any of the surrounding roadways.

And it gets better. They're also planning to add a Costco on Prospect between Saratoga and Lawrence Expressway.

F'd up traffic? Somebody else's problem.

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Housing Rich, Jobs Poor

When I'm talking about traffic in Silicon Valley, one of the things that I try to explain to people who are new to the area is about the broader traffic flows. In the mornings, most of the traffic in the Bay Area flows from the places where there are houses to the places where there are jobs. Then, in the evenings, the traffic flows from the places where there are jobs to the places where there are homes. 

This is why there are huge traffic backups going north from Gilroy, Morgan Hill and South San Jose in the mornings. And it's also why there is tons of traffic going toward Mountain View on 85 in the morning. Lots of jobs in those directions, but, historically, not as much housing (or more expensive housing).

In theory, one of the goals of some of these high-density housing developments has been to provide more housing nearer to the jobs. As much as I hate the traffic and the density created by places like the Santa Clara Square development, it actually expands housing in an area where there are a lot of businesses.

In contrast, the non-residential density around the planned El Paseo development is low (15,420 sf/acre) — ~3x lower than the planned Valco development (47,980 sf/acre), ~2x lower than the Stevens Creek Promenade. Meanwhile, the residential density of the El Paseo plan is extremely high (92 units/acre) compared to some of the other area developments. e.g. Cambrian Park (39 units/acre) and Valco (48 units/acre). 

But forget about the specific numbers. Instead, think about what's around these actual projects. The Valco project is just about next door to the Apple headquarters and it's surrounded by Apple buildings. As for the Steven's Creek development, there's a lot of retail, but they've been also adding office buildings around Santana Row and there are some corporate employers like Splunk there. It gets worse when you get down to Cambrian Park. The only substantial corporate employer near there is Xilinx. 

Meanwhile, if you hop over to the planned El Paseo development, it appears that San Jose is pinning their hopes on adding a handful of retail jobs. There aren't any large corporate employers in the area. They're not adding a corporate campus. And there won't be any added jobs or corporate businesses, particularly once the roads are inundated with all of the new residential traffic.

In other words, what you'll have is a (and this is a technical measure) shit-ton of new residences, with an equally high number of vehicles, the majority of which will be getting onto the roads to drive somewhere else to work at their jobs.

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This Isn't About Improving San Jose for Residents

I can almost guarantee you that, if you asked any Bay Area resident — or at least one that has been here for a reasonable amount of time — would more traffic improve your quality of life? The near universal answer would be no. And yet, San Jose and the state of California seem hell-bent on stuffing more and more high-density mixed use developments into every corner of the Bay Area. 

They say the want to expand the availability of housing and claim the answer is adding 11 stories of apartments in the spot with underused one and two-story strip malls are located. At the same time, if they went three blocks in closer to downtown San Jose — down Hamilton or down Saratoga — there are aging two and three story apartments that could probably benefit from a face-lift. But again, it's not about making things better, it's about trying to turn under-used retail and parking into cash. They don't want to upgrade things, they want to take the easy money and run.

Don't get me wrong. I understand that there would be a lot of challenges with updating and transforming existing multi-resident properties, starting with the fact that there are already existing property owners and existing residents. But these people are residents. They are constituents. And yet, none of these high-density multi-use developments are really about improving the quality of life for the existing area residents.

What Can You Do To Help Stop This Overstuffed El Paseo de Saratoga High-Density Development?

If you're a resident of San Jose, you should be aware that the San Jose City Council has a hearing and a vote scheduled for Tuesday, June 21. This is your opportunity to speak out and voice your opposition to the existing plan. 

You could also reach out to the Mayor and the 10 City Council members and voice your opposition to the plan. For more comprehensive information on the entire project, check out this link from the Moreland West Neighborhood Association, Joint Neighborhoods Letter to City Council on El Paseo Project — Share! Write!!


Thursday, May 16, 2019

At the Intersection of Marketing and Politics - Political Candidates

These days, politics and current events weigh heavily on my thoughts. Perhaps you find yourself feeling similarly. Since I try to avoid writing about political topics on this blog, the nature of current events kind of puts a damper on other topics rising to the level of a blog post. Recently though, there's been an interesting aspect of politics that keeps reminding me of important marketing themes, so I thought I would share some thoughts.

In many ways, political candidates and elections are similar to the product marketplace. Candidates position themselves and their ideas, they try to differentiate themselves from the others on the market, and an election is a kind of purchase decision. Viewed through that lens, you can learn some interesting lessons about politics

One of the great themes of political positioning is this idea that candidates start out with more extreme, polarizing positions -- essentially, strong differentiation in certain areas -- particularly in the primary elections, then "move towards the center" as they move toward a general election. This softening of their positions is, theoretically, designed to expand their audience as they approach a more common denominator.

But there's a fundamental problem with this approach; the epitome of center, the lowest common denominator is boring.

In a somewhat broader framing of this process, the candidate is a supposed to build a broader appeal by not having any elements that might serve as barriers to people liking them -- the, "I don't see anything that I don't like about this candidate, so I'll vote for them" notion.

The reality is that products don't work this way, and I don't think that candidates actually succeed this way either. Nobody chooses a product because they believe that it's mediocre or that it's the least objectionable. Safe, qualified candidates frequently lose to incompetent candidates who can build excitement around themselves, positions they hold, or issues they're trying to advance.

Perhaps the easiest example to reference was the California governor election between Arnold Schwarzenegger and Gray Davis. While Davis was more experienced in government processes and arguably more competent, Schwarzenegger was able to leverage his celebrity status and generate excitement around the issue of the "car tax", vehicle registration fees.

Exciting products and new ideas are risky. While it can be really easy to find people to tear down or minimize a new approach, it's easy to underestimate the appeal of some of these ideas. For example, consider when New York representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez talked about a 70% tax on income above $10 million. While there was some outrage raised about the idea in the media, when polled, they found that 59% of people supported the idea. What's more, that support spanned many traditionally perceived political demographic borders.

The Problem with "Electability"
Another related political concept is the idea of electability. This concept is often used in an effort to drive this positional shift toward the lowest common denominator. It's also used to skew the true market-nature of some primary elections, pushing voters to try and select the candidate that they think that most other people would be willing to vote for, rather than selecting who they think is the best.

At the core, the problem with this is when people try to make calculations based on what they think that other people think.

Instead of thinking of electability in terms of specific candidates or perceived "reasons why some larger group the electorate might not vote for a specific candidate", it might be better to think about this in product terms. Often, electability is that pre-judgement of a product's marketability, usually wrapped in FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt). It's like the thinking that says that the iPhone will fail because it doesn't have a physical keyboard, that people really want a physical keyboard. It's the kind of thinking that speculates people won't buy iPhones because they don't have user-serviceable batteries. What we know from history is that, when it came to buying iPhones, these factors didn't keep people from buying iPhones.

Similarly, perhaps you remember when people said nobody cared about what color their computer was -- you could pick any color, as long as it was beige. When the iMac came out, suddenly color mattered. Suddenly, the external design of the personal computer mattered. And, for a period of time, color was important. Then, as many computer manufacturers began copying Apple and making color computers, color became less important again. In the context of electability, just because something used to seem important or exciting, it doesn't mean that it's still an influential consideration.

What's more, when you think about those products that tried to leverage 'tired' features to help sell their product, there were probably a few seemingly knowledgeable product marketers who thought the idea was good enough and important enough to have it included in the product. These people knew -- or thought that they knew -- what the market wanted, and they got it wrong. They over-weighted the significance of a feature (or features) and the product failed.


Anyway, that's probably enough on this political topic for a while.

Thursday, March 28, 2019

Thoughts on how High Density Housing is Destroying Silicon Valley

If you're on the road these days, you can't help but notice one inescapable fact -- traffic in the Bay Area just keeps getting worse and worse. Increasingly, we're seeing gridlock on our roads. During rush hour, there are times and places where you have to wait through a green light because you can't make it through the intersection -- there isn't any room for your vehicle on the other side. All of these vehicles and increased traffic density means longer drive times, lost productivity, and increased stresses from time pressures, bad drivers, and road rage.

Commuting home the other day, I took a route that was similar to my commute a couple of years ago and I was shocked by where I experienced traffic back-ups, and by how much traffic there was. My rough estimate, based on where I was seeing the back-ups, is that we may have double the number of cars on the road compared to just two or three years ago.

But where did all of these cars come from? Why are there more cars here?

I have one simple answer -- high-density housing. Over the past five years or so, there has been a trend to transform areas of land that once held one and two-story buildings into high-density residential and multi-use/residential structures. In the photo above (that I happened to take about three years ago), what was once a Santa Clara technology campus with about three 2-story buildings was being transformed into a multi-story, high-density multi-use housing facility. The same transformation is also taking place in a couple of blocks in every direction from here.

The big joke with these places is that they make the claim that these high-density residences won't significantly increase traffic because they're close to the train station and public transit. The reality is that, with most of these places, you need to estimate an additional 1.5 cars on the road.

It's surprising to me that so many of these developments have been approved (and continue to be approved) by local city councils. While there are always calls for more affordable housing (and claims that a lack of housing is the problem), these developments are simply eroding any semblance of quality of life in the area. Here's my latest analogy for the problem:

Imagine the Bay Area like an awesome Internet Cafe, good food, nice environment, good Internet connectivity. Then, people start having meetings there and more people keep coming in. Soon, there is no space to sit, all of the tables are occupied and all of the chairs are full. 

Troubled by this, the patrons call for more chairs, more places to sit. Comfy chairs are changed to benches and counters are added to walls, so more people can fit in, but soon there is no place for coffee cups and few places for computers. 

But the worst is that, while the number of patrons has grown significantly, the cafe's Internet connection is still running on the same DSL line that provided reasonable broadband 15 years ago. The Internet Cafe has no Internet.

The Bay Area is collapsing under the weight of too many users while the roads, our broadband connectivity.

It would be one thing if we had the infrastructure to support the human density that they are building for, but we don't. We have no subways, no metro train system. And if you look at San Francisco as an example, we're going on 10 years and they still haven't completed the Muni line from Union Square to the Caltrain station.

And just when you thought they couldn't pack any more in, there's more high-density housing on the way...

Friday, March 22, 2019

San Diego Bike Share - What Happened to the Bikes?

I just spent the week in San Diego for a conference and it made for an interesting comparison to last year's San Diego event.

In San Diego last year, everywhere you went, there were bicycles -- GPS-enabled bike share had taken over the downtown convention center area. There were probably three or four different companies with bikes all around. What was surprising was that  I'd seen a few ride share bikes in the time, but in nowhere near the number that there were there in San Diego. Still, the bikes didn't seem out of place -- between the climate, the beach culture of San Diego and the transportation around the downtown area, the bikes seemed like a great complement to the transportation infrastructure there.

Last year there were only two options for electric scooters, Bird and Lime, and the actual number of scooters you saw was rather limited. While I used the bike share bikes for all of my around-town trips last year, I didn't rent a single scooter. In part, it was because the scooters were kind of hard to find, but some of it had to do with the whole scooter experience itself. For example, if I went for a late night run to the store for water and snacks, the idea of a nighttime ride back to the hotel on a scooter with an imbalanced load of groceries seemed like a good recipe for hitting the pavement. In contrast, most of the bike share bikes have baskets so that you could load a small amount of groceries in them.

This year, I saw only one GPS enabled bike company here, and bikes were few and far between. Instead, there are electric scooters everywhere. Everywhere. I saw scooters from three or four companies, including Lyft (something I hadn't seen before). There are also these little electric things that looks sort of like a mash-up between a bike and a mini-bike -- you sit on a bike seat to ride them, but they have something like 16" tires with bicycle disk brakes. There are no pedals, just foot-pegs. These things seemed to be a bit faster than scooters too.

The wholesale invasion of the electric scooters is kind a mixed bag. When I was getting ready to go to San Diego, I was actually looking forward to getting some bicycle time in, turning the pedals and burning some calories. Instead, there's not much for calorie burn on the electric scooters.

The scooters were okay for making the short trip from the hotel to the convention center faster. If you had your stuff in a backpack, you didn't really notice the load, but I don't know that someone with a briefcase style bag would say the same thing. That being said, the couple of times that I took a scooter out to restaurants in the Little Italy area, it was a ride that bordered on madness. Between the small wheels and the overall condition of the roads, each and every ride had moments when I thought that there was a better than even chance that I was going to crash -- and I would consider myself someone with better skills with my cycling background and decent sense of balance.

When I got off the scooter at the end of a scooter ride between Little Italy and the hotel, not once did I think, "man, that was fun. I can't wait to do that again."

Even more surprising for me were the times when I saw adults taking kids for a ride one of the scooters.

Ultimately, while I understand that the scooter model offers a lower cost element that enables these businesses to scale more easily and that the individual vehicles take up less physical space, I'm not optimistic about any sort of grand scale growth for this transportation alternative. I think it's only a matter of time before something like reports of serious injuries put a damper on the enthusiasm surrounding the whole electric scooter thing. I just wish that they would bring back the bikes.

Monday, January 7, 2019

Apple Ragnarøkkr

It's a new year and, following a warning from Apple on earnings, Apple's stock price has dropped significantly. In the warning, Apple blamed China's economy and consumer delays in upgrading their iPhones as key factors. Beyond problems with the economy and the monkey at the wheel flinging tariffs around, Apple's product problems have been a continuing trend, so it's hardly surprise that we're seeing that play out in their sales results. In terms of their product offering, the last time that Apple was this far off the rails, Steve Jobs came in for the turnaround rescue, reshaping not just the company, but the core product line. Something like that happening at this point seems rather unlikely, but rather than staring off into the distance looking for the rescue ship, let's drill down into some of the places where the current boat is taking on water.

In the earnings call, Tim Cook attributed part of Apple's revenue issue to people not upgrading their iPhones as quickly as they did in the past. For many in the media, this is directly related to the high price of the newest iPhones. Apparently, there has even been talk of price cuts across the iPhone line.

While I don't disagree with an assessment that the cost of the device is a big negative on the current line of iPhones, I don't think that that is the only answer. After all, I bought a new iPhone XS; however, in using it, I found the device to be so functionaly frustrating, I switched my phone back to my old iPhone SE. I carry the iPhone XS -- the camera is really good -- but I don't use it as a phone.

With the current state of the iPhone product line and the implied strategic direction, I expect that my next phone will come from eBay, since that's the only place that I can find an iPhone like the iPhone SE.

What's Wrong With Apple's Products
Apple's product mess extends far beyond iPhone X series. Over the holiday break, Macrumors published this post, "What do you want to See From Apple in 2019?" While lower prices topped the comment responses, you'll also see several top ranked comments focused on product. A couple of highlights include:
"Some new leadership, especially over in product." (the second most up-voted comment)
"Back to basic that Design is about how it works, not how it looks."
These comments echo the kinds of things being said within the professional design community where Apple products have been a staple for decades. Cast in a different light, these are things the "Pro" user community is saying.

Consider this Techcrunch post lamenting the loss of the headphone jack from over the break. Normally, I'd expect a "will the next iPhone include Bluetooth 11.7 Superband and theoretical 6G wireless?" from many of the tech blogs, but this post actually includes a look back at the history of the headphone jack on cellular phones. It's actually a nice walkthrough and a reminder of what a significant step it was for Apple to include a standard headphone jack on the iPhone and how that changed the industry. It was an important design decision that, by the time we got to 2016, Apple forgot it.

Why? The Techcrunch piece focuses on the idea of selling proprietary Airpods, but I think that is just another symptom because this disregard for the factors behind some of these design decisions, factors that were solved by Apple, then forgotten and abandoned. Good design understands history. Fashion follows the wind.

While I've written also about my complaints about the removal of the headphone jack, the removal of the MagSafe charging interface is another example of this same kind of disregard for the value and historical significance of the design. Over the years, I've has a number of Apple laptops. From Powerbooks to Macbook Pros, I've used and carried multiple versions over the years. Before MagSafe, all of my Apple laptops suffered from the same problem -- the charging connection became problematic and would only work in certain positions and my laptop became a desktop because I couldn't unplug it risking that I couldn't get it plugged in again. This issue was always caused by the same thing -- periodic accidental yanking of the cord like when the laptop was moved or when you happened to trip over the cord or such.

The MagSafe interface was a godsend. I can't tell you how many times the power cord was ripped from my laptop with the MagSafe connector on -- with no problem. Typically, these instances involved a few strong words, a sense of reassurance, and a return to work. Having spoken to product people in the PC industry, this was one of the most envied, desired features for PC laptops, but Apple's patent mojo was strong. There's a reason why Microsoft included a magnetic charging connection on it's Surface Pro devices.

And what did Apple replace it with? A USB-C charging interface that requires a special class of USB-C cables to charge the device. Gone is the magnetic connector. Gone is the LED that displays whether the device is charging -- another extremely popular, easily overlooked innovation that took multiple years and multiple product iterations to bring to market.

What's worse is that, while the old MagSafe charging port was kind of dumb, using a data-capable USB-C port for charging presents a potential threat vector. Back in September, I came across this article about hackers/security experts crafting a malicious USB cable that could be used to compromise a system in a few seconds. It's probably also worth noting that the USB-C standards body has just recently began to discuss an Authentication Program to protect against malware and firmware/hardware based attacks. So, while I haven't ever had to worry about malware and viruses through my laptop charger before, Apple's new systems have all incorporated this brilliant innovation.

Resistance to Upgrading
One of the factors cited by Apple in their recent earnings call was an observed slowdown in the rate of users upgrading from their existing devices. Some of this is similar to what we saw in the PC industry several years ago. While processor performance provided some percentage of performance improvements, when the base level of the device had reached "good enough" and perceived requirements were not growing at the same rate, people started holding onto their systems longer and longer.

Remember when the idea of "Netbooks" were all the rage? Remember how people were pushing for Apple to offer a Netbook? In a sort of response, Apple introduced the iPad and we all know how well that went. Looking back, we now know that Netbooks didn't really succeed in doing anything other than undercutting most PC hardware manufacturers' average selling price and devaluing their hardware on the whole. Meanwhile, the creeping trend for today's Apple has been increasingly trying to convince people that the iOS-driven iPad Pro is as good as a Macbook and that a lot of core iOS software framework should be used on the Mac.

If you didn't believe them initially, wait until you see how they've added an iPhone like LCD function-bar to your Macbook Pro so that you can watch your laptop battery juice ooze out. Can't believe on revolutionary and innovative it is? Wait until you see us add it to all of our other systems' keyboards (oh wait). Still concerned about how much power it might drain? Try our new "dark mode" in the Mac OS...

Remember when getting the Beatles on iTunes was a big deal? Little did everyone realize that "Helter Skelter" was going to become the soundtrack for Apple's product strategy.

To add insult to injury, you get things like this, Yes, the 2018 MacBook Air's FaceTime HD Camera is Awful. Yes, finally the venerable MacBook Air was upgraded in 2018. Finally it had a Retina display. Sadly, it was also the end of MagSafe and the end of USB-A support on Apple's portable line. Other than that, it seemed like a pretty decent upgrade -- until you started to look into the nooks and crannies and under the rug. Hidden from view, they stuck an Intel Y series processor. Of course, Apple didn't really play this up (and most consumers look at the "i5" or "i7 number), but many of the things that I read were poo-pooing this decision.

I could go on for a while with more examples. Perhaps the simplest thing to say is, many people characterize this reluctance to upgrade being driven by price or a lack of innovation driving enough need/interest in newer hardware (remember when everyone was looking for "the killer app"). I think that there may be a third contributing explanation that is being under-factored into a reluctance to upgrade -- a concern that from a quality and utility perspective, the newer product is going to be worse by many degrees of measure.

Is this Apple Ragnarøkkr -- the "twilight of the gods"?